Insider Advantage Poll: Obama, McCain tied in Georgia

by andrewalker08, Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 08:56:29 PM EST

Coming on the same day Illinois Sen. Barack Obama released his Georgia-inclusive campaign ads, Insider Advantage is out with a poll that shows Democrat Obama tied with Republican John McCain in the Peach State.

McCain: 44%

Obama: 43%

Barr: 6%

Undecided: 7%

Source:  InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition Survey

The survey, with a sampling size of 408 registered likely voters, has a margin of error of +/- 5%.

If these numbers hold up, the Democratic presidential nominee could be competitive in Georgia for the first time since 1996 when President Bill Clinton lost the state by less than two percentage points.




Tags: Polls, Georgia, Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment


Tips & Recs for Georgia... (2.00 / 7)

...The "purple" Peach State.


by andrewalker08 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 08:57:04 PM EST

Go Barr! (2.00 / 3)

Thanks for the wonderful post, this is awesome news. Glad to see Barr polling well.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 08:59:28 PM EST

and Clinton probably only lost it in 1996 (2.00 / 2)

because towards the end of the campaign, the Christian Coalition began a huge GOTV to try to save Dole humiliation. It wound up 47-45.8-6.4 also after Perot started airing 30 minute infomercials where he said Clinton would be impeached(lo and behold) in the last week of the campaign. The difference here is that racial polarization may come in Georgia, as Obama is still black, and Georgia's first time going Republican was in 1964.


by Lakrosse on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 09:04:29 PM EST

Optimism (none / 0)

It'd be great, but realistically we have to see some more polling before we can be confident GA will be competitive (although Obama is working there).


McCain = Iraq. John McCain = overturn Roe.
by PantsB on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 09:22:48 PM EST

The electoral map is changing. (2.00 / 2)

And thank God for that.  Maybe Nov 4. we can focus on more than just Florida and Ohio, as if they are the only two states in the Union.

Georgia is still a tough peach to peel, but we don't HAVE to win it to use it effectively.  If Obama can put up enough of a battle to force McCain to expend his resources (his measly public-financed resources) there, that takes time, money, and opportunity from McCain that he could have put to use in other states.  Obama can force him to defend across a broad front of so-called Republican safe states.

This looks so bad for Republicans, I feel like I'm cursing myself just to think about it out loud.  Chickens, hatching, all that.  But, wow!

Keep your eye on a couple other states that may turn purple, as well:  North Carolina and Louisiana.  

And it might be worth a little infrastructure investment in Mississippi as well, just in case a rising tide lifts some long-sunk boats.  Mississippi is 37% black, 60% white, and McCain is not a southerner.  With a registration and GOTV program to mobilize Mississippi Democrats, Obama could be competitive if he can score a thin slice of white Mississippi pie.


by Dumbo on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 09:30:48 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: (2.00 / 2)

Holy Varsity Hotdogs!!!


by DPW on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 09:38:12 PM EST

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: (2.00 / 2)

Awesome Varsity reference!  I wish I could give you double mojo, or alternatively an order of greasy onion rings or a frosted orange.


I like baked beans.
by SpideyDem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 09:53:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, I actually grew up in SC, about an hour from Athens. In upstate SC, we have a similar iconic grease joint called the Beacon. It's the greasiest food you'll ever eat. And, as soon as you walk in, an old blind man starts screaming at you for your order. It's shocks and intimidates the crap out of you on your first visit, but the grease and super sweet tea will have you coming back for more.

And, of course, it's got character, as they say.


by DPW on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:08:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: (none / 0)

I shall be headed to upstate South Carolina very soon then.  The Beacon is calling me!!!


I like baked beans.
by SpideyDem on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:41:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: (none / 0)

Here you go: http://www.beacondrivein.com/index.htm

Be careful.


by DPW on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:45:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: (none / 0)

Yuck.  I know it's a landmark and all, but...


by rfahey22 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:28:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

IA Sucks (2.00 / 1)

Take Insider Advantage with a grain of salt. They were usually off the mark during the primaries. That said something must be going on for the Obama campign to be spending early. If we can get MCain to throw money at the Atlanta media market, it will have been worth it.


by RandyMI on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 09:45:50 PM EST

Re: IA Sucks (none / 0)

True, but often IA's polls sucked due to turnout models that skewed too old and too white. Both of those trends tended to underestimate Obama support. I haven't seen the internals to this poll (the link was broken when I tried it), so I don't know if this poll's turnout model is good or bad. But, it's worth noting that in a state like Georgia, Obama is likely to overperform poll projections due to the enthusiasm gap. That is to say, the turnout models used (which rely upon turnout in prior, similar elections) likely underestimate turnout among AA supporters (and possibly younger voters, as well). Similarly, turnout models may overestimate turnout among older, white support for McCain in a state like Georgia, where most white republicans are unenthusiastic evangelicals; plus, some of that soft white support for McCain could defect to Bob Barr if he manages to piss them off or puts Romney on the ticket.

Sorry, for rambling toward the end. But, I think I made my point somewhere in there.  


by DPW on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:04:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: Obama, McCain tied in (none / 0)

Go Bulldogs!!


I can see Lake Erie from where I live, so can I please run the Navy?
by hootie4170 on Thu Jun 19, 2008 at 10:22:41 PM EST

Actually, it's...GO DAWGS!!! (none / 0)

SIC 'EM!!!


by andrewalker08 on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 05:23:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Insider Advantage Poll: Obama, McCain tied in (none / 0)

6 percent for Barr is killer.  Maybe he can build on that.


by Drummond on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 03:01:49 AM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.

Login
Username:

Password: